Over the next four years, IBM Lotus' corporate messaging software installed base market share is expected to fall sharply from 24% to 17%. The installed base of Lotus Domino will peak in 2005 and decline thereafter, while the study predicts that the new Workplace platform will not experience significant uptake for several years to come.
The Microsoft Exchange installed base will command a 31% share of the corporate messaging software market in 2004. Growing uptake for the company's new Exchange Server 2003 platform is expected to increase Microsoft's market share to 33% by 2008.
The whitepaper attributes IBM Lotus' dwindling market share to the company's new Workplace strategy. Informal conversations with Domino customers suggest that a significant number of companies will choose to migrate to other platforms, due to IBM Lotus' confusing new messaging software direction. Concurrently, the new Workplace platform is expected to generate only limited uptake due to its lack of definition and potentially complex upgrade path.
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