commentary: MCAD Industry View -- What did the Last Quarter Bring?

Company Last QTR

Prev QTR

2002 QTR
Last QTR vs.
Comparable QTR
2002 Earnings
Autodesk 7.5 6.4 17.6 43%
Dassault €28.2 €25.3 €27.7 102%
PTC (33.8) (15.2) (27.3) worse
EDS 138.0 (126.0) 316.0 44%
EDS PLM Earnings for EDS PLM Solutions are not reported by EDS
ANSYS 4.4 4.3 4.7 95%
ESI Group €(0.5)1 -- €2.02 slightly worse
Moldflow 0.25 (0.59) (0.85) better
MSC.Software (27.8) 1.1 (6.1) far worse
Tecnomatix (0.2) (1.6) 0.2 slightly worse
Figure 2 -- Nine Public MCAD Companies' Latest Qtrly Earnings Performances
(Millions; U.S. $ except as indicated)

Note: 1 Full Year Ending 01-31-03. 2 Full Year Ending 01-31-02.

Autodesk's revenue this most recent quarter was right at the high end of the range of $205 to $210 million predicted by management three months earlier. While Autodesk's revenue this quarter improved sequentially 8% over its last quarter, it was nevertheless still down 7% from its comparable quarter in 2002 (Figure 1). Moreover, while still slightly positive, net income this quarter was only 43% of last year's comparable quarter (Figure 2).

Dassault Systemes total revenue in its most current quarter declined 5% from the comparable quarter last year (see Figure 1), and software-only revenue was down 9%. Sequentially from the previous quarter, total revenue also declined slightly. Management says, however, that the Q2 2003 was within its target range of € 180 to € 185 million. While earnings were up 11% sequentially from the just-previous quarter, Dassault was able to squeeze out only a very slight earnings increase this quarter vs. last year (see Figure 2). Dassault will definitely have to juice up its 2H 2003 revenue to meet its overall 2003 €-revenue growth goals.

Parametric's fortunes continued to decline in its most recent 2003 quarter, with revenue down 4% sequentially from last quarter, and 7% compared to last year (see Figure 1). Net Loss was more than double last quarter's and worse than last year's comparable quarter (see Figure 2). Parametric management had predicted only three months earlier that revenue this last quarter would be equal to the previous quarter; however, they missed their revenue forecast by some $6 million on the low side, compounding their most recent delay in chopping costs as predicted.

On July 23, EDS announced second quarter 2003 total revenue rose 2 percent to $5.52 billion (down 3 percent on a constant currency basis) versus the same quarter a year ago (See Figure 1). While virtually flat sequentially with its previous quarter, "EDS PLM Solutions revenues decreased 10 percent, at constant currency, from a year ago to $205 million, reflecting weak software spending across a range of industries," said the news release. Earnings information in Figure 2 for EDS reflects the wide fluctuations endured during EDS' current year of reconstruction. Figure 2 of course offers no insight into EDS PLM margins, as earnings for EDS PLM Solutions are not reported by EDS.

ANSYS continued its remarkable record of revenue growth in its most recent quarter, advancing 12% sequentially and 21% over its 2002 comparable quarter (see Figure 1). However, earnings were up only 4% sequentially and actually declined 5% from the same quarter last year (see Figure 2).

ESI Group (Paris, France): Flat from 2001 to 2002 at just over € 42 million in revenue, the ESI Group nevertheless slipped from slightly positive net income in 2001 to slightly negative in 2002. However, as shown in Figure 1 above, the ESI Group scored a 22% gain in its Q1 2003 first quarter revenue (ending April 30, 2003) over the same quarter the previous year (reported June 4, 2003). Some 81% of ESI Group's revenues come from outside France. Note: The ESI Group is a provider of numerical simulation prototypes and manufacturing processes that take into account the physics of materials. A pioneer of virtual crash test simulation with PAM-CRASH and virtual stamping with PAM-STAMP, the ESI Group invented the Virtual Try-Out Space. Second Quarter results for the ESI Group will not be available until about September 4, 2003.

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