MCAD Industry View – A May 2009 Update

On April 29, 2009 PTC reported financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended April 4, 2009. Total revenue was $225 million, a drop of 12.6% from the $258 million in the same quarter a year earlier and a drop of 6.3% from the $240 million in the previous quarter. The $225 million in revenue was just exactly in the middle of the guidance range provided three months earlier. License revenue was $42 million or 19% of the total. This was a decline of 46% from the year ago quarter and a drop of 17% sequentially. Maintenance revenue was $123 million or 54% of total revenue, a 0.5% increase year-over-year and a 6.3% drop from the prior quarter. Service revenue was $61 million, a nearly 27% increase from the same quarter a year earlier and a 2.7% increase from the previous quarter.

On a geographic basis North America accounted for 35% of total revenue, Europe 40% and Asia Pacific for 25%. See Table 5.

Income from resellers was $57 million, down 16% year-over-year and down 12% sequentially. Direct revenue was $169 million or 75% of the total amount.

There were 965 new customers in the quarter compared to 1,115 a year earlier and 1,289 a quarter earlier.

Net income for the quarter was $7.18 million, a 61% decline from the $18.8 million twelve months ago, but a 54% increase from the $4.7 million in the prior quarter.

The net income for the quarter included a $10 million restructuring charge, $7 million of stock-based compensation expense, $9 million of acquisition-related intangible asset amortization expenses and $15 million of income tax adjustments.

On March 05, 2009 PTC announced that C. Richard Harrison had been named chairman of PTC’s board of directors. James Heppelmann was named president and chief operating officer, reporting to Mr. Harrison, who continues as chief executive officer. Noel Posternak, previously PTC’s chairman, remains a member of the Board of Directors and serves as PTC’s Lead Independent Director. All changes became effective March 4, 2009.

C. Richard Harrison, chairman and chief executive officer, commented, “On a constant currency and non-GAAP basis, our total Q2 revenue was down 10%, or approximately $25 million, compared to last year. While constant currency license revenue was down 44% in Q2, as expected, our results highlight our maintenance and services businesses, which both grew on a constant currency basis in Q2 and currently represent approximately 80% of our revenue base.”

On May 26, 2009 Siemens PLM Software announced Solid Edge® software with Synchronous Technology 2. This release is the second version of Solid Edge to incorporate Siemens PLM Software’s synchronous technology, a history-free, feature-based modeling capability.

Solid Edge is a core component of the Velocity Series™ portfolio and combines the speed and flexibility of direct modeling with the precise control of dimension-driven design. The latest release extends synchronous technology deeper in the product with improved part and assembly modeling as well as a new sheet metal application. With this release, Siemens PLM Software also announces a new built-in FEA tool and PDM integration leveraging the latest Microsoft SharePoint platforms. Solid Edge with synchronous technology 2 is scheduled to ship in the summer of 2009.

For more discussion about Siemens PLM Software’s “Synchronous Technology” and Autodesk’s plans for “Inventor Fusion Technology”, readers are invited to click on the URL below, which will take them to a blog entry on the COFES website published on February 11, 2009, entitled “Solid Progress…”:

G5 MCAD Vendor Stock Performances

By the end of the first calendar quarter of 2009, the combined stock prices of the G5 MCAD vendors had fallen in absolute terms some 40% year-over-year and almost 18% sequentially from the just previous quarter. On average the stock prices fell nearly 37% year-over-year and 16% relative to the just prior quarter. See Table 6 below for the bad news.

The stock prices of all the G5 MCAD vendors tumbled at least 30% year-over-year. The steepest decliner was MSC.Software at -58% followed by Autodesk at -52%. PTC dropped 40% while ANSYS and Dassault Systemes dropped over 30%.

Things were somewhat better sequentially but again all the MCAD stocks dropped by double digit percentages. ANSYS had the smallest percentage drop at nearly -11%. PTC was the largest decliner at -25% with Autodesk a close second at -22.5%.

The G5 MCAD stock performance compares to a year-over-year decline of 37% for the average of the major indexes and to a decline of 10.6% versus the previous quarter. See Table 7.

Figure 2
may tell the story best of all. See below.

The valuations of the G5 vendors have each improved over the last two months. See the chart below which compares Market Caps of each vendor on March 31, 2009 and May 26, 2009:

Forecast Guidance from Individual MCAD Providers

Of those MCAD vendors giving guidance for the next quarter, only ANSYS is projecting a revenue increase (+13.5%). Autodesk is the most pessimistic at -33%. Both Dassault Systemes and PTC forecast a drop of around -17%. See Table 8.

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About the Authors:

Since 1996, Dr. Russ Henke has been president of HENKE ASSOCIATES, a San Francisco Bay Area high-tech business & management consulting firm. The number of client companies for Henke Associates now numbers more than forty. During his corporate career, Henke operated sequentially on "both sides" of MCAE/MCAD and EDA, as a user and as a vendor. He's a veteran corporate executive from Cincinnati Milacron, SDRC, Schlumberger Applicon, Gould Electronics, ATP, and Mentor Graphics.

Henke is a Fellow of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) and served on the SME International Board of Directors. He is also a member of the IEEE and a Life Fellow of ASME International. In April 2006, Dr. Henke received the 2006 Lifetime Achievement Award from The CAD Society, presented by CAD Society president Jeff Rowe at COFES2006 in Scottsdale, AZ. In February 2007, Henke became affiliated with Cyon Research's select group of experts on business and technology issues as a Senior Analyst. This Cyon Research connection aids and supplements Henke's ongoing, independent consulting practice (HENKE ASSOCIATES).

An affiliate of the HENKE ASSOCIATES team since 2001, LA-based Dr. John R. (Jack) Horgan co-authored this May 2009 MCAD Industry Commentary. Dr. Horgan's prior corporate career has included executive positions at Applicon, Aries Technology, CADAM and MICROCADAM, as well as a stint at IBM. Dr. Horgan is also an editor of EDAcafé Weekly.

Since May 2003 the authors have now published a total of seventy-seven (77) independent articles on MCAD, PLM, EDA and Electronics IP on IBSystems' MCADCafè and EDACafè. Further information on HENKE ASSOCIATES, and URL's for past Commentaries, are available at . March 31, 2009 marked the 13th Anniversary of the founding of HENKE ASSOCIATES.

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