January Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Corrugated Containers(b); Electrical Components; Polypropylene(b); and Steel(b) (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum (4); Aluminum Extrusions; Copper (6); Corrugated Containers(b); Diesel Fuel (6); Gasoline (3); Natural Gas (6); Oil (2); Polyethylene (3); Polypropylene(b) (4); Scrap Metal (2); Stainless Steel (4); Stainless Steel Products (2); Steel(b) (5); and Steel — Cold Rolled.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price

JANUARY 2009 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing contracted in January as the PMI registered 35.6 percent, 2.7 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 32.9 percent reported in December. This is the 12th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 41.2 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates contraction in both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the PMI for January (35.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.7 percent decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annual basis."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

          Month                     PMI                           Month                     PMI
 
Jan 2009 35.6 Jul 2008 49.5
Dec 2008 32.9 Jun 2008 49.5

Nov 2008

36.6 May 2008 49.3
Oct 2008 38.7 Apr 2008 48.6
Sep 2008 43.4 Mar 2008 49.0
Aug 2008 49.3 Feb 2008 48.8
Average for 12 months – 44.3

High – 49.5

Low – 32.9


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