Commentary: MCAD Industry View – A March 2008 Update

North America accounted for 30.5% of total revenue, EMEA 38.9%, and Asia Pacific for 30.6%. American revenue was down half a percent, EMEA revenue was down 7.3%, and AP revenue was down 6.2%.

Net MSC loss for the 2007 year was $1.6 million, compared to a net gain of $13.8 million in the prior year. In the year, there were restructuring charges of $8.5 million and non-cash impairment charges of $4.8 million. There were no restructuring charges in 2006 and only $141K in impairment charges.

For the 2007 calendar year, PTC had total revenue of $961 million, an increase of 9% from the $882 million in the prior year. Net income for the year was $138 million, a 114% increase from the $65 million in 2006.

Forecast Guidance from Individual MCAD Providers

Several of the G7 firms did not provide forecast guidance. The firms that did provide forecasts predicted an average of year-over-year revenue increase of over 14%. Only Moldflow projected an annual growth rate of under 10%. On a sequential basis ANSYS, Autodesk and Dassault are forecasting a drop in Q1 2008 from the fourth quarter 2007, while PTC and Moldflow foresee an increase relative to the quarter just reported.

Individual Company Guidance

As guidance ANSYS expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $103 million to $106 million, compared to $111 million in the quarter just reported and compared to $88 million in the same quarter a year earlier. For fiscal 2008 ANSYS expects revenue in the range of $442 to $447 million. This compares to $385 in fiscal 2007.

As guidance Autodesk expects net revenue for the first quarter to be in the range of $575 million and $585 million, versus $599 million in the quarter just reported and versus $508 million in the same quarter a year ago. However, the company is lowering its previous estimate of earnings per diluted share. Net revenue for the second quarter is expected to be about $590 million. For next year, Autodesk is maintaining its previously provided revenue guidance range of $2.425 billion and $2.475 billion. However, the company is lowering its previous estimate of earnings per diluted share.

As guidance Dassault Systemes said, “With the advancement of major strategic initiatives and the visibility we have going into 2008 we have confidence in our prospects, including our objectives for software revenue growth of about 12 percent in constant currencies and for about 10 percent revenue growth, also in constant currencies.”

ESI Group did not provide guidance.

As guidance Moldflow expects revenue for full fiscal 2008 year to grow in the range of 10% to 13% when compared to fiscal 2007.

MSC.Software said that it will not issue guidance at this time. The Company will continue to evaluate its decision to provide guidance in the future.

PTC's outlook for the second quarter, ending March 29, is for GAAP revenue to be between $248 million and $258 million, and GAAP earnings per share to be between $0.10 and $0.14. The revenue compares to $241 million in the quarter just reported and to $248 million in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

MCADCafè.com currently tracks the financial performance of multiple public companies in the Mechanical CAD market. Eight (8) companies were chosen for the author's May 8, 2003 Commentary #1. Four of these companies (Autodesk, Dassault Systemes, PTC and EDS PLM Solutions (now named UGS, a privately-held company) represented approximately 85 percent of the total revenue in this grouping, and each of these four companies offers a wide array of software and services products across the entire design to manufacturing space. The remaining four public companies (ANSYS, Moldflow, MSC.Software and Tecnomatix) offered specialized software/services products in specific MCAD niches and together they created the remaining 15 percent of the total group-of-8's revenue. Indeed, these latter four companies frequently partnered with the initial four to provide end-customers with broader solution suites.

For the author's August 2003 Commentary in MCADCafé.com, a ninth company, the ESI Group, was added. All nine were studied thereafter for comparison purposes. Tecnomatix has since been acquired by UGS and hence has been removed from this report. As a result of the acquisition of UGS by Siemens, UGS will not longer provide any separate financial data and therefore has also been dropped from the list.

The combined worldwide total annual revenue of these companies is nearly $6 billion, not an insignificant sum. But it is, in fact, less than 3 percent of the money spent annually on all types of software (source IDC). So why study MCAD companies at all? The key to MCAD's importance lies in the leverage its users apply to create the everyday durable goods with which we are all familiar: automobiles, trucks, military gear & weapons, appliances, farm & construction equipment, aircraft & aerospace vehicles, etc. In short, MCAD is arguably responsible for enabling today's manufacturing industries, which are the centerpieces of creating real productivity and wealth in every modern economy.

Understanding the comparative MCAD revenue content of various vendors is not merely academic. For example, it helps observers better understand the likely future competitive MCAD strength of each vendor relative to its peers in such areas as amount of money available for R&D, for potential new acquisitions, for financial stability to weather economic cycles, and for other key business factors.

In comparing financial performances of the four largest MCAD companies tracked by MCADCafé.com, it's instructive to account for the actual MCAD content of each. For example, the revenues of Dassault and PTC can arguably be considered 100% MCAD in nature, whereas Autodesk's total revenue is only partially made up from its business in MCAD. Some Autodesk revenue (~15%) stems from a segment which provides systems and software for creating and animating imagery. Even in the remaining 85% of Autodesk's total revenue, derived from its Design Solutions Segment, is divided among solutions for Manufacturing, GIS, AEC, and the platform technology group. Only the solutions of the Manufacturing Group (Inventor, AutoCAD Mechanical, Mechanical Desktop, Streamline, Point A, etc.) might be thought of as "pure" MCAD revenue.

It should also be noted that the companies have different business models. IBM, both direct and through Business Partners, is the exclusive marketing and sales arm for Dassault Systems high end product lines: CATIA, Enovia and Delmia. The IBM channel also carries SmarTeam solutions in a non-exclusive basis. IBM records the end user revenue and pays DS a royalty of approximately 50%. DS has been taken over increasing responsibility for managing IBM Business Partners. DS subsidiary SolidWorks is sold through value added resellers. Autodesk sells its products overwhelmingly through valued added resellers. The other MCAD vendors sell mostly on a direct basis. Direct sales result in greater percentage of end user revenue recognition but also involve higher cost of sales and risk.

While now buried inside Siemens, UGS annual revenues are right there at similar levels as the world's other MCAD revenue leaders Autodesk, Dassault and PTC. For purposes of our discussion, we considered the revenues from the remaining public companies (ANSYS, ESI Group, Moldflow, and MSC.Software) to be 100% MCAD.


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