Commentary: MCAD Industry View – A November 2007 Update
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Commentary: MCAD Industry View – A November 2007 Update

Commentary:

MCAD Industry View - A November 2007 Update


by Dr. Russ Henke and Dr. Jack Horgan
Henke Associates


In the first MCAD Industry Commentary published May 2003 in MCADCafé.com, then-recent yearly and quarterly financial performances of a selected group of public Mechanical Computer Aided Design (MCAD) companies were analyzed and compared. Expectations of future financial performances of these same MCAD entities were documented. The May 2003 MCAD Commentary was followed by seventeen quarterly updates in MCADCafé.com, one for each subsequent calendar quarter. URL's on all past articles are available. The G9 entities covered were ANSYS, Autodesk, Dassault Systèmes, UGS PLM, ESI Group, Moldflow, MSC.Software, PTC and Tecnomatix.

As a result of the acquisition of Tecnomatix by UGS that closed April 1, 2005, Tecnomatix was eliminated from coverage thereafter as a separate entity. So we covered the G8.

On May 7, 2007, UGS announced the close of its acquisition by Siemens AG, effective May 4, 2007. As a result, the business has since gone to market as 'UGS PLM Software, a global division of the Siemens Automation and Drives (A&D) Group”. Over the years, UGS has bounced back and forth between being a public company and a private company under different ownerships. Although not required to do so, UGS had reported on its financial results even when privately held. However, for the first quarter of 2007, there was only a terse statement from Tony Affuso, chairman and CEO of UGS PLM Software, that, "We had a very strong quarter in Q1 (2007), coming in near 11% on total revenue growth and 16% on software license growth." This translates to about $300 million in revenue for Q1 2007. According to a recent statement form a Siemens' company spokesperson, now UGS will no longer report financial results separately from Siemens. Unfortunately, this is not an uncommon practice with very large corporations. In the first quarter of this year, the Siemens A&D Group generated euro 3.9 billion of the euro 20.2 billion total Siemens' revenue. So UGS itself is relatively "small change" within Siemens. Alas, we can expect very little insight into UGS' quarterly financial performances from public Siemens' reports, going forward.

Accordingly, this eighteenth article in the MCAD Commentary sequel recounts the financial performances of the now remaining group-of-seven (G7) MCAD/PLM entities for the nominal third quarter of 2007.


Recent MCAD & PLM News Highlights

In October 2007, Autodesk made three acquisitions, namely PlassoTech (a supplier of analysis and simulation software for the mechanical design market), Skymatter Limited (developer of Mudbox 3D modeling software), and Hanna Strategies (an engineering services firm that offers software development with centers in Shanghai, China, Atlanta, Georgia and Pune, India). On November 15, 2007, Autodesk announced its intent to acquire Robobat, a privately held company based in Grenoble, France that specializes in analysis, design, and steel and concrete detailing software for the structural engineering industry.

On October 2, 2007, Dassault announced it had acquired venture backed Seemage, Inc. The firm has about 30 employees, 2006 revenue under �2 million and ~100 customers.

On October 31, 2007, PTC announced its intent to acquire CoCreate Software, GmbH, for $250 million. CoCreate offers a 3rd generation approach to product lifecycle management (3G PLM) streamlines the process of planning, developing and manufacturing products. It also provides Dynamic Modeling based 3D CAD software.



MCAD Vendors' Financial Performances in Q3 2007

As a group, the G7 MCAD vendors generated combined revenues of $1.4 billion, an impressive increase of 15.5% from the $1.2 billion a year earlier, but a more modest 3.6% increase from the $1.35 billion in the just previous quarter. ANSYS was by far the year-over-year percentage revenue growth leader at 34%. Autodesk, Dassault Systemes, ESI Group and Moldflow delivered double digit percentage revenue growth year over year. MSC.Software was the only decliner at -2.1%. On a sequential basis, PTC was the only G7 vendor to reach double digit revenue growth. Moldflow and MSC.Software (again) were decliners at -10.8% and -5.9%, respectively.


Figure 1 below provides a bar graph showing the revenue trend for each of the covered vendors, for the periods mentioned in Table 1.


Figure 2 below shows the relative share of each vendor's revenue based on Q3 2007 performance.

For the quarter, Autodesk was the clear share leader followed in order by Dassault Systemes and PTC. The others had low single digit share.

(As always, it needs to be pointed out that unlike the other vendors in this report, Autodesk earns a major portion of its revenue outside of the MCAD space. Autodesk does not break out its mechanical contribution. Also, both Autodesk and Dassault Systemes sell mostly through third parties, while PTC sells mostly direct). The figure excludes UGS who did not report revenue for the quarter.


Turning to profitability, the G7 did an about-face from its performance last quarter. The combined earnings of the G7 in Q3 2007 was only $183 million, down a whopping 33% from the combined earnings of $272 million in Q3 last year, and down 27% from the $251 million in the just prior quarter. PTC's fall off in earnings drastically affected the G7's totals (see Table 2).




Details on Individual Vendors' Q3 2007 Performances



On November 1, 2007 ANSYS, Inc. reported financial results for the third quarter, the period ended September 30, 2007. Total revenue for the quarter was $94 million, an increase of 34% from the $70 million in the third quarter of 2006, and a 2% increase from the $92 million in the just prior quarter. Software license revenue was $61 million, or 65% of total revenue. This was an increase of 45% year-over-year, and a 2.8% increase sequentially. Maintenance and service revenue was $33 million, up 18% year-over-year, and up 0.4% sequentially.

Net income for the quarter was $18.7 million, up 123% from the $10.3 million in the year ago quarter, and up 2.4% from the prior quarter.

Note this third quarter is the first quarter of apples-to-apples comparison since the ANSYS acquisition of Fluent.

Direct sales in Q3 2007 accounted for 70% of total revenue, while indirect sales accounted for 30%. Revenue from paid-up licenses was up 48% in the quarter, software maintenance grew by more than 20%, and service revenue was up around 10%. Lease revenue accounted for 42% of the total.

On a geographic basis in Q3 2007, North America was up 16% year-over-year, Europe up 26%, and the General International area was up 23% (Japan +9%). There was a $2 million impact in favorable exchange rate in Europe.

Jim Cashman, President and CEO provided this sanguine comment on the company's third quarter 2007 performance by saying, "This was a very solid quarter for ANSYS. Most notably, this quarter's performance stands out as it represents an 'apples- to-apples' comparison of our business with Non-GAAP organic revenue growth at 21.5% (18% in constant currencies). We believe that the strength of the results hints at increasing potential and validates our strategy to engage our customers at new levels, driven by the breadth and depth of our world-class simulation capabilities. It also reinforces the importance of our continued focus on integration to build the foundation for the future."



On November 15, 2007 Autodesk, Inc reported financial results for the third quarter of its fiscal 2008, the period ended September 30, 2007. Total revenue for the quarter was $538 million, an increase of almost 18% from the $457 million in the third quarter of 2006, and an increase of 2.4% from the $525 million in the prior quarter. License revenue of $396 million, or 74% of total revenue, was a year-over-year increase of 14.3%, and a sequential increase of 0.6%. Maintenance revenue was $143 million, or 26% of total revenue, an increase of 29% year-over-year, and an increase of 7.8% sequentially.

The Platform segment, which accounts for about 45% of Autodesk revenue, includes AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT products that service multiple markets. Other segments are AEC (previously two segments: Building and Infrastructure), and Media/Entertainment (previously named Discreet). The Manufacturing segment (which includes the Inventor product lines) accounted for almost 19% of total revenue, and grew 20% year-over-year and 3.0% from the prior quarter. A “guesstimate” of Autodesk MCAD revenue would be about $190 million for the quarter.


Design segment revenues increased 20% over the third quarter of fiscal 2007 (last year) to $467 million. Combined revenues from the Company's model-based 3D products, Inventor, Revit, Civil 3D and its newly acquired NavisWorks software, increased 32% over the third quarter of fiscal 2007 to $130 million and comprised 24% of total revenues. Autodesk shipped over 21,400 commercial seats of Revit, over 13,400 commercial seats of Inventor, and nearly 8,200 commercial seats of Civil 3D. In addition, revenues from 2D vertical products increased 22% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007.

The Americas accounted for 40% of total revenue, Europe for 38%, and Asia for 22%.


Revenues from the emerging economies in Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America increased 31% over the third quarter of fiscal 2007 to $92 million, and represented 17% of total revenues.

Revenues from new seats increased by 20% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007. Revenues from new seats of Revit, AutoCAD Architecture and AutoCAD Mechanical were particularly strong, increasing 49%, 44% and 39%, respectively, compared to the third quarter of last year.

Upgrade revenue and maintenance revenue from subscriptions combined increased 15% over the third quarter of fiscal 2007 to $186 million. Maintenance revenue from subscriptions increased 29% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007, to $143 million, or 26% of revenue. Deferred maintenance revenue from subscriptions increased $10 million sequentially and $101 million compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007. Total upgrade revenues decreased 16% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2007, as expected.

Carl Bass, Autodesk president and CEO, said, "Strong execution delivered yet another quarter of record revenue. Our success is ongoing because Autodesk solutions enable our customers to address important secular trends such as globalization, the need for new and improved infrastructure and the emergence of building information modeling as a new paradigm. These trends will continue to drive customers to rapidly adopt our industry leading solutions."

On August 27, 2007 Autodesk announced the acquisition of California-based PlassoTech, a supplier of analysis and simulation software for the mechanical design market. Autodesk currently plans to integrate PlassoTech technology into the Inventor product family, augmenting existing FEA tools.

On October 16, 2007 Autodesk announced that it had completed the acquisition of substantially all the assets of Skymatter Limited, the New Zealand-based, privately held developer of Mudbox 3D modeling software. On August 6, 2007, Autodesk announced an agreement to purchase Skymatter's assets. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Mudbox has shaped photorealistic creatures for the blockbuster film King Kong, as well as upcoming films The Golden Compass, Fred Claus and Inkheart.

On October 31, 2007 Autodesk announced that it had signed an agreement to acquire Hanna Strategies, an engineering services firm that offers software development with centers in Shanghai, China, Atlanta, Georgia and Pune, India. In 2006, Autodesk purchased an ownership interest in Hanna Strategies and is now acquiring the remaining ownership. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

On November 15, 2007 Autodesk announced its intent to acquire Robobat, a privately held company based in Grenoble, France that specializes in analysis, design, and steel and concrete detailing software for the structural engineering industry for approximately $42.5 million in USD cash subject to a working capital adjustment. The addition of Robobat technology to the Autodesk portfolio supports the company's vision for building information modeling (BIM) and will enable Autodesk to develop structural analysis and detailing solutions that leverage the information at the heart of BIM from design to fabrication.



On October 30, 2007 Dassault Systèmes (DS) reported financial results for the third quarter, the period ended September 30, 2007. Total revenue for the quarter was $410 million, an increase of 12.5% over the $364 million in the same quarter a year ago, but a 2.2% decrease from the $419 million in the just prior quarter. Total revenue in euros was 299 million, just above the high end of the guidance given last quarter. Software revenue at $351 million, or 83% of total revenue, was up 22.5% year-over-year and 2.5% sequentially. This included $127 million of new license revenue and $223 million of recurring revenue. Service revenue was $59 million, down 8.4% year-over-year and down 16.3% sequentially.

Commencing with the this quarter, DS has reclassified CosmosWorks to its Mainstream 3D business segment from the PLM segment, reflecting the fact that CosmosWorks' products are primarily sold through the SolidWorks channel in conjunction with the sale of SolidWorks products. All other DS simulation applications are classified within the PLM segment.

The Enovia brand, which includes Enovia, MatrixOne and SmarTeam, generated $78 million in the quarter, or 19% of total revenue. This was a 24% increase year-over-year, but a 1% decrease sequentially. Note that MatrixOne was acquired in May 2006 for $410 million. Having combined SolidWorks and CosmosWorks into Mainstream 3D, this category generated $85 million, accounting for almost 21% of total revenue, representing increases of 21.4% year-over-year and 0.2% sequentially. CAD generated $247 million, or 60% of total revenue, up 6.6% year-over-year, but down 3.4% sequentially.


Revenue from America was $132 million, or 32% of total revenue. Revenue from Europe was $179 million, or almost 44% of total revenue. Revenue from Asia was $99 million, or 24% of total revenue. Year-over-year revenue from America was up 14%, from Europe up almost 14% and from Asia up 27%.

In the quarter Dassault sold 7,704 seats of Catia at an ASP of �11,730, compared to 7,431 seats at an ASP �12,550 of in the third quarter of last year. SolidWorks sold 11,350 seats at an ASP of �4,619, compared to 8,644 seats at an ASP of �4,985 in the same quarter a year ago. (Prices down slightly, number of seats up).

In its PLM Value Channel (value added resellers), DS is now directly responsible for 25 countries, with the remaining 10 countries to transition to the DS VAR model by early 2008. There are no countries transitioning during the current fourth quarter. Japan and Germany, two of Dassault's largest markets, will switch over in Q1 2008.

On October 2, 2007 Dassault announced it had acquired venture-backed Seemage, Inc. The firm has about 30 employees, 2006 revenue under �2 million and 100 customers. Seemage is said to have made product information available everywhere for customers since 2002. With Seemage's system for delivering product information in exactly the right form to the right person at the right time, enterprises' investments in CAD, PLM, ERP and CRM are said to be enhanced to deliver more value. With Seemage's XML-based, CAD-independent architecture, products are delivered faster, with higher quality and at lower cost, it is claimed. Seemage customers include PSA Peugeot Citroën, Renault F1, John Deere, Faurecia, Delphi, SNECMA, Alcatel Alenia Space and Thales.

On October 18, 2007 Dassault and Microsoft launched Microsoft Virtual Earth™-3DVIA This free online application, developed by Dassault Systèmes, allows consumers to imagine & create realistic 3-D models - such as buildings and structures - and then share them through Microsoft Virtual Earth and online communities.

Net DS income for the quarter was only $42.6 million, down 18% from the $51.9 million in the same quarter a year ago, and down almost 17% from the $51.2 million in the prior quarter.

Bernard Charlès, Dassault Systèmes President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “DS had a satisfactory third quarter, despite currency headwinds, with strong software performance. We continue to make good progress in our PLM Value channel transformation and SolidWorks had a rewarding quarter with 20% non-GAAP revenue growth in constant currencies. DS is expanding the scope of its PLM portfolio to revolutionize the way companies can share and reuse 3D product data. Our goal is to help companies leverage their product-related data wherever it may reside for product documentation, technical training, maintenance, customer service as well as for marketing and sales. With the acquisition of Seemage, we are adding an innovative team and technology in support of this vision.”

Charlès continued, “We continue to focus our R&D efforts on developing technologies for next-generation, online collaboration. As part of our 3D For ALL strategy, we recently launched with Microsoft, Virtual Earth- 3DVIA Shape. This online application enables users to easily create realistic 3D models of homes and buildings, and then share them with others in online communities.”



On September 26, 2007 EDS Group reported its consolidated half-year results to July 31, 2007. Total revenue for the quarter ended July 1, 2007 was $19.3 million, an increase of almost 12% from the $17.3 million in the same quarter a year earlier, and a 6% increase from the $18.2 million in the prior quarter. License revenue was $14.2 million, accounting for 74% of total revenue. This was an increase of 6% year-over-year, and an increase of 1.5% sequentially. Service and other revenue was $5.1 million, or 26% of total revenue. This was a 33% increase year-over-year and 21% increase sequentially.

Net loss for the first half year was 2.7 million euros, compared to a net loss of 2.6 million euros in the first half year of the previous fiscal year.

On October 23, 2007 ESI Group announced the appointment of Mr. Eric Müller-Borle as Chief Financial Officer. An HEC Paris graduate and a CFA charterholder, Eric Müller-Borle spent a large part of his career within the Axa group, where he was head of strategic planning at Axa Assurances France, then CFO of several subsidiaries and finally CEO of Maxis, a joint venture between Axa and Metlife, the US leader in group insurance. Leaving the insurance world, in 2003 Eric Müller-Borle became CFO and Corporate Secretary of Kneip Communication (Luxembourg), a leader in industrialized financial communications.

The firm also announced the appointment to its board of directors of Francis Bernard, co-founder of Dassault Systemes and currently CEO of ParallelGraphics, and of Othman Laraki, a Projects Director at Google.

Alain de Rouvray, ESI Group's Chairman and CEO, says, “Given our Licensing activity's substantial seasonal effect, this half-year performance notably reflects the very positive contribution from Services to the improvement in profitability. Moreover, the structuring of our teams and the reduction in their average cost are in line with our policy of optimising our operating costs.”



On November 5, 2007 Moldflow Corporation reported financial results for the first quarter of its 2008 fiscal year. Total revenue for the quarter was $13.4 million, an increase of 14% from the $11.8 million in the year ago quarter, but a decrease of almost 11% from the $15 million in the just prior quarter. The 14% year-over-year increase was 11% organic growth, and the remainder was due to favorable currency exchange rate movement. The sequential decrease is attributable to seasonality. Product revenue was $5.8 million, accounting for 43% of total revenue, a 13% increase year-over-year, but a 23% drop sequentially. Service revenue was $7.6 million, accounting for 57% of total revenue, a 14.6% increase year-over-year and a 2% increase sequentially.

Moldflow's divestiture of its Manufacturing Solutions division was effective at the end of June 2007. That business was sold to Husky Injection Molding System Ltd. for a final figure of $7.6 million.

Just under half of Moldflow's revenue comes from the Asia Pacific region, in particular from the electronics industry, followed by automotive manufactures and their suppliers. The automotive industry also drove European sales that accounted for 34% of total revenue. The North American region had lower than expected performance and accounted for only 17% of total. In the quarter, 163 new licenses were sold, bringing the total seat count to approximately 9,500. There were 53 quota carrying salespersons at the end of the quarter, compared to 44 a year earlier.

Net income for the third quarter was $1.3 million, down 23% from the $1.7 million in the same quarter last year, but a 127% increase from the $571 thousand in the just previous quarter.

Roland Thomas, Moldflow Corporation's president and CEO, said, "We are pleased with the results of our first quarter as a company solely focused on our core CAE software business. These results are consistent with our overall expectations for the full fiscal year. During the quarter, we saw another strong sales performance from our Asia Pacific region. Both our European and Asia Pacific regions also saw a number of repeat investments from both large and small companies. We were also pleased to see the investments in our geographical expansion continue to provide incremental revenue."



On November 7, 2007 MSC.Software Corporation reported financial results for the third quarter, the period ended September 30, 2007. Total revenue for the quarter was $57.2 million, a decrease of 2% from the $58.3 million in the third quarter of last year, and a decrease of 5.8% from the $60.7 million in the just previous quarter. Software license revenue was $19.9 million, or 35% of total revenue, a decrease of 12.3% year-over-year, and a decrease of 13.5% sequentially. Approximately 14% of total software revenue represented enterprise solutions. Maintenance revenue was $31.6 million, an increase of 9.6% year-over-year and a decrease of 0.7% sequentially. Service revenue was $5.7 million, a decrease of 16.2% year-over-year, and a decrease of 3.7% sequentially.

Revenue from the Americas accounted for nearly 31% of total revenue, EMEA for 37%, and AP for 32%.


In the quarter there were 79 transactions over $100,000 compared to 70 transactions in the same quarter last year. There are now 132 global resellers.

On October 17, 2007 MSC.Software announced a partnership agreement with T-Systems Enterprise Services GmbH. T-Systems will contribute complementary technology from its MEDINA/SDM.Post solution, including enhanced results management and evaluation, and will be enhanced through available systems integration; especially the integration of SimManager in the customers' customized PLM environments.

Net MSC.Software loss for the quarter was $122 thousand, compared to a net loss of $1,763 thousand a year earlier, and a net gain of $2,338 thousand from the just previous quarter.

Bill Weyand, CEO and Chairman of MSC software, said, "The strategic product transition to simulation enterprise solutions is a journey for both MSC Software and our customers. Recent successful enterprise transactions with industry leaders including Airbus and Audi indicate that we are making progress with this product transition."

He added, "We believe we are seeing certain positive signs in our business activities, both with our new enterprise solutions and our software tools, and had a number of key wins in both categories in the third quarter with customers including Spirit Aerospace, Northrop Grumman and Bombardier in the Americas, Honda R&D and Mahindra Engineering in Asia Pacific, and Airbus, Audi and Eurocopter in Europe."



On October 31, 2007 PTC reported revenue for its fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2007, the periods ended September 30, 2007. Total revenue for the quarter was $266.7 million, an increase of 8.6% from the $245.5 million in the same quarter a year ago, and a 18.5% increase from the $225 million in the prior quarter. License revenue was $96 million, or 36% of total revenue, an increase of almost 14% year-over-year and an increase of 54.8% sequentially. Maintenance revenue was $106 million, or 40% of total revenue, an increase of 8.3% year-over-year, and an increase of 2.8% sequentially. Service revenue was $64.6 million, or just over 24% of total revenue. This was an increase of 2.5% year-over-year and an increase of 7.8% sequentially.


Desktop Solutions total revenue was $157.4 million, or 59% of total revenue, a drop of 1.2% compared to $159 million in the year ago quarter, and a 13.3% increase sequentially from $139 million. Enterprise Solutions total revenue was $109 million, or 41% of total revenue. This was an increase of almost 27% year-over-year, and sequentially. Revenue from the reseller channel was $51 million, up 9.6% year-over-year and 7.8% sequentially.

In the quarter, PTC sold 5,450 seats of Pro/Engineer and 41,900 seats of Windchill. Cumulative seats of Pro/Engineer reached an impressive 368,300, and of Windchill 533,400.

North American revenue was $102 million, accounting for 38% of the total; European revenue was also $102 million, remarkably also accounting for 38% of total revenue; and Asia Pacific revenue was $62 million (Japan $28.6 million), accounting for 24% of total revenue. NA revenue was down nearly 12% year-over-year, European revenue up 37% year-over-year, and AP revenue up 12% year-over-year. On a sequential basis, North America and Europe were up almost 18% and AP up 12%.

PTC also announced its intent to acquire CoCreate Software, GmbH for $250 million. The transaction value represents approximately 3.1 times CoCreate's total revenue, 4.6 times its maintenance revenue, and 7.4 times its non-GAAP operating margins, based on trailing twelve-month data. The acquisition is expected to close in December 2007, subject to customary conditions including regulatory approval.

Dimming PTC's fine revenue performance in the quarter, net income for the quarter was only $36 million, down 77% from the $155 million in the year ago quarter, and down 59% from the $87 million in the just prior quarter.

PTC also announced that it will restate its previously-issued financial statements with respect to certain transactions involving Toshiba Corporation of Japan recorded during the fiscal periods 2001 to 2006. As discussed in PTC's Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the transactions appear to have been related to an allegedly fraudulent scheme conducted by a Toshiba employee. The aggregate revenue associated with the transactions anticipated to be restated is approximately $41 million, or less than 1% of total PTC revenue during the affected fiscal years, and the expected reduction in fiscal 2006 revenue is approximately $8 million.

For the full fiscal year 2007, total revenue was $941 million, up 10% from the $854 million last year. Net Income also improved (see Table 8).


Revenue from North America was $365 million, up 1.2%; from Europe $353 million, up 23%; and from Asia Pacific $223 million, up 7.9%.

C. Richard Harrison, president and chief executive officer, said “We executed well in the fourth quarter and delivered good results for the year. In particular, our non-GAAP operating margin of 24% for the fourth quarter contributed to our ability to deliver substantial margin growth for the full year. Additionally, sales of our Enterprise Solutions continue to significantly outpace market growth. Finally, we delivered outstanding results in Europe in 2007.”



MCAD Vendor Stock Performances

The combined stock prices of the covered MCAD vendors grew by 27% in absolute dollars from the same period last year, and by 27.5% in average price (Table 9). Moldflow and ANSYS were the year-over-year percentage growth leaders at 62% and 55%, respectively. Autodesk was third with an increase of 43%. MSC.Software was the only significant decliner with a drop of nearly 12%. PTC was essentially flat. On a sequential basis, ANSYS was the leader by far with an increase in stock price of 29%. Autodesk, Dassault Systemes and MSC.Software experienced single digit growth, while PTC and Moldflow endured declines over 10%.


Meanwhile, the major stock indexes grew an average of almost 18% year-over-year and 3% sequentially.







Forecast Guidance from Individual MCAD Providers

ESI Group and MSC.Software did not provide guidance for the coming quarter. Those MCAD companies providing guidance for the next quarter forecast an overall year-over-year growth of nearly 21%. Autodesk is the most bullish at 39% year-over-year with ANSYS next at over 17%. All the others are forecasting growth of just over 10%.




Individual Company Guidance

As guidance ANSYS expects revenue for the next quarter to be in the range of $99 million to $101 million, compared to $94 million in the quarter just reported, and compared to $85.2 million in the same quarter last year. ANSYS expects revenue for the year to be $373 million to $375 million, compared to $264 million in the previous fiscal year. The firm also expects that revenue for the following year to be in the range of $425 million to $432 million.

As guidance Autodesk expects revenue in the next quarter to be between $575 million and $585 million. This compares to $538 million in the quarter just reported and compared to $417 million in the same quarter a year ago. For the fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.148 billion and $2.158 billion compared to $1.523 billion in the previous fiscal year. For fiscal year 2009, net revenues are expected to be between $2.425 billion and $2.475 billion, or a 14% improvement over the projected revenue for fiscal 2008.

Thibault de Tersant, Senior Executive Vice President and CFO of Dassault Systemes, commented, “Based upon our financial performance through the first nine months and with our third quarter in line with our expectations, we are reconfirming our 2007 constant currency non-GAAP revenue objective for growth of about 14-15% but are adjusting our 2007 non-GAAP reported revenue range to about �1.275 to �1.285 billion and our non-GAAP earnings per share objective to about �1.96 to �2.00 to reflect an update of our US dollar exchange rate assumption to US$1.45 per �1.00 versus US$1.35 previously. Looking to 2008, we see a continuation of the favorable demand dynamics for our software. We are introducing our 2008 initial constant currency non-GAAP software revenue growth objective of about 12% and non-GAAP total revenue growth of about 10% in constant currencies.” Dassault's revenue in the quarter just reported was $410 million or 300 million euros. The firm's revenue in the fourth quarter of last year was $449 million and 348 million euros.

ESI Group did not provide guidance.

As guidance Moldflow expects revenue for full fiscal 2008 to grow in the range of 10% to 13% compared to fiscal 2007. In the corresponding quarter of last year revenue was $17.7 million. The projected range would translate into an average around $19.5 million per quarter, compared to $13.4 million in the quarter just reported.

At this time MSC.Software does not issue guidance. The Company will evaluate its decision to provide guidance in the future, as it continues to move through this transition period and visibility improves.

As guidance PTC expects revenue in the next quarter to be in the range of $230 million to $240 million, compared to $267 million in the quarter just completed, and compared to $222 million in the same quarter a year ago. PTC expects revenue for fiscal 2008 to around $1 billion, or about 6% growth from the $941 million in fiscal 2007.

MCADCafè.com currently tracks the financial performance of multiple public companies in the Mechanical CAD market. Eight (8) companies were chosen for the author's first May 8, 2003 Commentary. Four of these companies (Autodesk, Dassault Systemes, PTC and EDS PLM Solutions (now named UGS, a privately-held company) represented approximately 85 percent of the total revenue in this grouping, and each of these four companies offers a wide array of software and services products across the entire design to manufacturing space. The remaining four public companies (ANSYS, Moldflow, MSC.Software and Tecnomatix) offered specialized software/services products in specific MCAD niches and together they created the remaining 15 percent of the total group-of-8's revenue. Indeed, these latter four companies frequently partnered with the initial four to provide end-customers with broader solution suites.

For the author's August 2003 Commentary in MCADCafé.com, a ninth company, the ESI Group, was added. All nine were studied thereafter for comparison purposes. Tecnomatix has since been acquired by UGS and hence has been removed from this report. As a result of the acquisition of UGS by Siemens, UGS will not longer provide any financial data and therefore has also been dropped from the list.

The combined worldwide total annual revenue of these covered companies is over $5 billion, not an insignificant sum. But it is, in fact, less than 3 percent of the money spent annually on all types of software (source IDC). So why study MCAD companies at all? The key to MCAD's importance lies in the leverage its users apply to create the everyday durable goods with which we are all familiar: automobiles, trucks, military gear & weapons, appliances, farm & construction equipment, aircraft & aerospace vehicles, etc. In short, MCAD is arguably responsible for enabling today's manufacturing industries, which are the centerpieces of creating real productivity and wealth in every modern economy. (Indeed, when a country loses manufacturing resources, its national wealth decreses).

Understanding the comparative MCAD revenue content of various vendors is not merely academic. For example, it helps observers better understand the likely future competitive MCAD strength of each vendor relative to its peers in such areas as amount of money available for R&D, for potential new acquisitions, for financial stability to weather economic cycles, and for other key business factors.

In comparing financial performances of the four largest MCAD companies tracked by MCADCafé.com, it's instructive to account for the actual MCAD content of each. For example, the revenues of Dassault and PTC can arguably be considered 100% MCAD in nature, whereas Autodesk's total revenue is only partially made up from its business in MCAD. Some Autodesk revenue (~15%) stems from a segment which provides systems and software for creating and animating imagery. Even in the remaining 85% of Autodesk's total revenue, derived from its Design Solutions Segment, is divided among solutions for Manufacturing, GIS, AEC, and the platform technology group. Only the solutions of the Manufacturing Group (Inventor, AutoCAD Mechanical, Mechanical Desktop, Streamline, Point A, etc.) might be thought of as "pure" MCAD revenue.

It should also be noted that the companies have different business models. IBM, both direct and through Business Partners, is the exclusive marketing and sales arm for Dassault Systems high end product lines: CATIA, Enovia and Delmia. The IBM channel also carries SmarTeam solutions in a non-exclusive basis. IBM records the end user revenue and pays DS a royalty of approximately 50%. DS has been taken over increasing responsibility for managing IBM Business Partners. DS subsidiary SolidWorks is sold through value added resellers. Autodesk sells its products overwhelmingly through valued added resellers. The other MCAD vendors sell mostly on a direct basis. Direct sales result in greater percentage of end user revenue recognition but also involve higher cost of sales and risk.

While now private again, UGS annual revenues are right there at similar levels as the world's other MCAD revenue leaders Autodesk, Dassault and PTC. For purposes of our discussion, we considered the revenues from the remaining public companies (ANSYS, ESI Group, Moldflow, and MSC.Software) to be 100% MCAD.




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About the Authors:

Since 1996, Dr. Russ Henke has been president of HENKE ASSOCIATES, a San Francisco Bay Area high-tech business & management consulting firm. The number of client companies for Henke Associates now numbers more than forty. During his corporate career, Henke operated sequentially on "both sides" of MCAD and EDA, as a user and as a vendor. He's a veteran corporate executive from Cincinnati Milacron, SDRC, Schlumberger Applicon, Gould Electronics, ATP, and Mentor Graphics. Henke is a Fellow of the Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) and served on the SME International Board of Directors. He is also a member of the IEEE and a Life Fellow of ASME International. In April 2006, Dr. Henke received the 2006 Lifetime Achievement Award from The CAD Society, presented by CAD Society president Jeff Rowe at COFES2006 in Scottsdale, AZ. In February 2007, Henke also affiliated with Cyon Research's select group of experts on business and technology issues as a Senior Analyst. This Cyon Research connection aids and supplements Henke's ongoing, independent consulting practice (Henke Associates).

An affiliate of the HENKE ASSOCIATES team since 2001, LA-based Dr. John R. (Jack) Horgan co-authored this November 2006 Electronics IP Industry Commentary. Dr. Horgan's prior corporate career has included executive positions at Applicon, Aries Technology, CADAM and MICROCADAM, as well as a stint at IBM. Dr. Horgan is also an editor of EDAcafe Weekly.

Since May 2003 the authors have now published a total of fifty-nine (59) independent articles on MCAD, PLM, EDA and Electronics IP on IBSystems' MCADCafé and EDACafé. Further information on HENKE ASSOCIATES, and URL's for past Commentaries, are available a http://www.henkeassociates.net.



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