C. Richard Harrison, president and chief executive officer, said, "Our third quarter license revenue shortfall reflects two major factors: several large transactions that we expected but did not close, and a reduction in add-on sales of Desktop Solutions in North America and Japan. Though our third quarter results did not meet our expectations, we continue to have confidence in the strength of the PLM market and in PTC's competitive position. As evidenced by our record maintenance revenue in the third quarter and our revenue growth year to date, we have a large and loyal customer base that continues to benefit from the use of PTC's differentiated solutions."
MCAD Vendor Stock Performances
The combined year-over-year stock prices of the MCAD vendors declined 5.6% in absolute dollars, and declined 5.5% in average price over the first quarter of 2006. This compares to an average increase of 8.2% for the major stock indexes over the same period. PTC was the only firm with a year-over-year gain in stock price at 16.4%. The largest decliner was MSC.Software at -31%. The others had a drop of low to middle single digits. On a sequential basis, the combined stock prices rose 3.3% in absolute dollars, and 2.7% in average price. The major stock indexes were essentially flat relative to the prior quarter. ANSYS was the sequential growth leader at nearly 17% with Moldflow and PTC trailing with 8.2% and 5.4%, respectively. MSC.Software and Autodesk had the largest quarterly drop at nearly -10% and -7%, respectively.
Forecast Guidance from Individual MCAD Providers
Those MCAD companies providing guidance for the next quarter, forecast a growth of almost 14% compared to the same period last year, and a meager 2% gain sequentially. All firms are calling for quarterly year-over-year quarterly growth. On a sequential basis, Moldflow is most bullish at 33%, with PTC a distant second at 7.4%. ANSYS and Dassault are projecting small sequential drops in revenue.
As guidance ANSYS expect revenue in the next quarter to be between $89 million and $90 million compared to $92.2 million in the quarter just reported, and compared to $71.1 million in the same quarter a year ago. For fiscal 2007 ANSYS forecasts revenue on the range of $367 million to $371 million ,compared to $263 million in fiscal 2006.
CEO Jim Cashman said, “Based on our first half performance, we are increasing our 2007 full year guidance and believe we are poised to drive 2007 to be the most successful year in the Company's 37 year history."
As guidance Autodesk expects net revenues for the third quarter of fiscal 2008 to be in the range of $530 million to $540 million. This compares to $526 million in the quarter just completed, and compares well to $457 million in the third quarter a year ago. The firm also expects revenues for the fourth fiscal quarter to be between $575 million and $585 million. For fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.14 billion and $2.16 billion, compared to $1.84 billion last year.
Thibault de Tersant, Senior Executive Vice President and CFO of Dassault Systemes, commented, “Looking to our full year 2007 objectives, our non-GAAP constant currency revenue objective is for growth of about 14-15%, increasing from 13% previously. Thanks to our strong second quarter performance and the inclusion of ICEM following completion of its acquisition, we are increasing our revenue objective. In addition, we are adjusting our yen currency exchange rate assumption, leading to 2007 reported revenue range of about £1.285 to £1.30 billion. We are reconfirming our earnings per share and operating margin objectives.”
This means a third quarter non-GAAP total revenue objective of about £300 to £305 million, and a 2007 non-GAAP revenue range of about £1.285 to £1.30 billion, updated from the prior range of £1.275 to £1.285 billion.
Moldflow CEO Roland Thomas said “ our total revenue (should be) 14% higher year-over-year, a marked improvement over fiscal 2006. As we head into fiscal 2008, we are confident in the strength of our core business and believe we are strongly positioned to take advantage of the continuing growth of the worldwide CAE market and further our leadership position."
MSC.Software did not provide guidance for the next quarter. The company said, “It will evaluate its decision to provide guidance in the future, as it continues to move through this transition period and visibility improves.”
As guidance PTC expects revenue in the next quarter to be between $240 million and $250 million, compared to $225 million in the quarter just completed, and to $245 million in the same quarter last year. This is a reduction from prior guidance. Full year revenue is projected to fall between $915 million and $925 million, or 8% year-over-year growth.