MCAD Industry View - A May 2006 Update

Tony Affuso, chairman, CEO and president of UGS, said, "UGS' solid results were led by overall software revenue growth and our relentless focus on customer success which is at the heart of our leadership and vision of enabling global innovation networks. Today, one year after closing the Tecnomatix acquisition, we announce an exciting competitive win at Northrop Grumman that underscores our momentum as the market leader in digital manufacturing."

MCAD Vendor Stock Performances

In the most recent quarter, the combined stock prices of the MCAD vendors rose 33% in absolute dollars, and 34% in average price, over the first quarter of 2005. This compares to an average increase of 11% for the major stock indexes over the same period. Percentage-wise, MSC.Software had the greatest year-over-year increase at 79% with ANSYS a strong second at 58%. Autodesk and Dassault Systèmes also had growth over 20%, while PTC increased almost 17%. Moldflow was the only decliner at minus 1.8%.

On a sequential basis the combined stock prices rose 7% in absolute dollars and 9% in terms of average price. This compares to an average increase of nearly 6% in the major stock indexes. ANSYS was the growth leader at 27% with MSC.Sofwtare and Moldflow had good share price growth at 17% and 12%, respectively. Autodesk was the only sequentially decliner, down 10%.

Stock Sym 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 QoQ YoY
ANSS 34.21 42.69 54.15 26.8% 58.3%
ADSK 29.76 42.95 38.52 -10.3% 29.4%
DASTY 46.56 56.61 57.26 1.1% 23.0%
MNSC 11.13 17.00 19.95 17.4% 79.2%
MFLO 15.99 13.94 15.7 12.6% -1.8%
PMTC 13.98 15.25 16.33 7.1% 16.8%
Total 151.63 188.44 201.91 7.1% 33.2%
      Ave Delta 9.1% 34.2%
Table 8 Stock Prices of MCAD Vendors ($)
(Note: UGS is no longer publicly traded)

Index 1Q05 4Q05 1Q06 QoQ YoY
DJI 10,504 10,783 11,109 3.0% 5.8%
Nasdaq 1,999 2,175 2,340 7.6% 17.1%
S&P 1,181 1,212 1,295 6.8% 9.7%
      Ave Delta 5.8% 10.8%
Table 9 Stock Market Indices

Figure 4 - Stock Prices of MCAD Vendors

Forecast Guidance from Individual MCAD Providers

All of the MCAD vendors are forecasting year-over-year quarterly growth for this next quarter. ESI is most bullish. Dassault, Autodesk and ANSYS are projecting low double digit growth with PTC approaching double digit growth. On a sequential basis Moldflow and ESI Group are the most optimistic.

Company Forecast
2Q 2006
1Q 2006
vs Last
vs Prior
ANSYS 41.5 46 -9.8% 38 10.1%
Autodesk 430 417 3.2% 373 15.3%
Dassault (€) 250 256 -2.3% 217 15.0%
Dassault ($) 313 307 1.7% 274 14.1%
ESI Group (€) 28 25 12.5% 13.5 105.8%
ESI Group ($) 35 30 17.3% 17.0 104.2%
Moldflow 19 16 13.8% 18.3 1.1%
PTC 197 200 -1.6% 180 9.3%
UGS PLM NA 274   285  
Table 10 Forecasts for Next Quarter

As guidance ANSYS expects revenue in the next quarter of approximately $41 to $42 million. This guidance excludes the impact of the acquisition of Fluent Inc. announced in the first quarter of 2006. This compares to revenue of $46 million in the quarter just completed. Guidance for the fiscal year is in the range of $178 million to $180 million. This compares to $158 million for 2005.

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Review Article
  • October 09, 2008
    Reviewed by 'Randy Bigs'
    I agree that the authors did not clearly tie in the overall state of the economy with the topic at hand: The MCAD industry. But, based on this week's Wall Street stock meltdown, and the worry about increased inflation, It's obivious that we've got big trouble right here in River City, and it will not only negatively impact our economy in general but the MCAD industry specifically. I applaud Russ and Jack for their in depth financial analysis, but I also would like to see their US and geopolitical comments weaved into the central theme, and I hope when things turn around they'll continue to present an objective viewpoint.

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  • October 09, 2008
    Reviewed by 'Mac'
    Where's the beef? As I read the article hoping to get an update on the MCAD industry, I quickly realized that this article was just another political aid without any data that could be interpreted without a secret MCAD decoder ring. I find it ridiculas that instead of giving us a real opinions on state things in the MCAD space, the authors just threw up graphs and charts and ambigious explantions about what those caharts and graphs meant. At the end of the article, I could only grin as I kept wating for some information that might actually provide me with some insight on the state of affairs in the MCAD space, but it didn't happen.
    I guess I will have to keep on collecting data myself and come up with my own opinions as I am not on someone's pay roll and have no political agenda. Here's a noval idea, lose the jibber jabber talk (Denny Crain) and call it like it is for once.

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  • October 09, 2008
    Reviewed by 'S. Wertel'
    This article is quite detailed and well written, but what does your political view on the current administration have anything to do with MCAD?
    The entire Economic & Geopolitical Factors section is filled with tripe and misleading statistics pulled from sources biased to anti-Bush sentiments. Is this the only medium Henke and Horgan have available to prevail themselves as some sort of economic masterminds? Please keep your political drivel to yourselves, or at least place them in a forum suited to that topic. If I were to have written something as perverse as this, my high school social studies teacher would have accused me of having diarrhea of the mouth and sent me back to perform an unbiased analysis showing both side of the story and how they relate to the topic at hand - the state of the MCAD industry. No where in the Economic & Geopolitical Factors section was there a tie between the rubbish on the page and how it relates to the topic of MCAD. Please go back to high school.
    In the future, please contain the Industry View to just an Industry View, or at least tie in the Economic and Political Factors with how they affect MCAD.

      One person found this review helpful.

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  • October 09, 2008
    Reviewed by 'Brian T.'
    What can I say, this article is not a News/Commentary article on MCAD. It is a Liberal Propaganda Tool which I will no longer subscribe to. This is my third comment on these out of place personal comments in a otherwise informative article. When the last article was being reviewed, the last I checked 6 out of 7 responses to that last article agreed with my review, then it was removed from the mcadcafe page. I guess this would be expected, that poll might not swing their way, so cut it short before it looks bad. I have never seen this report taken off this site before. These views are included in a bias manor. Some of the same information could be included with out the Liberal Bias View or the quotes from the Like Sources. Enough Said, another media tool that can't seem to go down the middle.

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