October Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 50.8%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slowing; Inventories Contracting

(a) Number of months moving in current direction

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Aluminum Products(b) (3); Caustic Soda; Copper(b); Steel(b) (14); and Titanium Dioxide (2).

Commodities Down in Price

Alloy Metals; Aluminum (2); Aluminum Products(b) (2); Copper(b) (3); Copper Based Products; Corn; Diesel Fuel; Natural Gas (3); Nickel; Plastic Resins (3); Steel(b) (6); and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

Castings (2) is the only commodity reported in short supply.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

(b) Reported as both up and down in price.

OCTOBER 2011 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

PMI

Manufacturing continued its growth in October as the PMI registered 50.8 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point when compared to September’s reading of 51.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 29th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 27th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, “The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through October (55.7 percent) corresponds to a 4.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for October (50.8 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.9 percent increase in real GDP annually.”

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

          Month           PMI                     Month           PMI
 
Oct 2011 50.8 Apr 2011 60.4
Sep 2011 51.6 Mar 2011 61.2
Aug 2011 50.6 Feb 2011 61.4
Jul 2011 50.9 Jan 2011 60.8
Jun 2011 55.3 Dec 2010 58.5
May 2011 53.5 Nov 2010 58.2

Average for 12 months – 56.1
High – 61.4
Low – 50.6


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