MCAD Industry View -- What did the Last Quarter Bring?

Additional comments on the forecasts above

For 4Q2003 Dassault is forecasting revenue of €225M, a growth of 28% over last quarter. The total is the same as the fourth quarters in 2001 and 2002. Still, it's real stretch for 4Q2003. Moldflow is a distant second in terms of forecast percentage growth with 10.5%. PTC prediction of a revenue drop of 8.7% is the most pessimistic.

The most significant industry "event" was that EDS announced it was considering an Initial Public Offering or private offering of a minority stake in its EDS PLM Solutions subsidiary as a strategic alternative for the business.

The only acquisition-related action during the quarter was Tecnomatix's finalizing its acquisition of substantially all of USDATA's assets, including the FactoryLink and Xfactory shop floor and execution system products.

During the third quarter and the subsequent 5 weeks before this Commentary went to press, MCAD vendors introduced many products and product releases; a partial list follows. Autodesk introduced Vault for engineering group data management and promptly signed a deal with Microsoft to integrate Vault with Microsoft's Business Solutions. Similarly, EDS created TeamCenter Community, a collaboration environment based on Microsoft Windows SharePoint Services. EDS released NX Nastran based upon a licensing agreement with MSC.Software driven by a settlement with the FTC. EDS claims to have sold 5,000 seats in 8 weeks. MSC.Software released Nastran 2004 and Adams 2003. ANSYS introduced ANSYS 8.0. Dassault and IBM announced the release of Version 5 Release 12 of their PLM portfolio, comprised of CATIA, ENOVI and SMARTEAM. Concurrently, Dassault Systhmes announced V5R12 of DELMI for the engineering of lean manufacturing processes. SolidWorks, a Dassault subsidiary, introduced SolidWorks 2004. ESI Group and EASi announced a strategic partnership in software integration and engineering services. PTC announced Channel Advantage Reseller program which allows channel partners for the first time to sell Windchill Solutions.

Stock Prices for the last three months and YTD

Technical stocks generally follow the "tech-heavy" NASDAQ index. The market basket of MCAD stocks covered in these MCAD Commentaries remarkably outperformed the NASDAQ 31.1% versus 22.1% from Jan 2 to Aug 1, as can be observed in Figure 3 below. However, the basket trailed the NASDAQ by 0.5% during the last three months.

All these stocks are way up as of Halloween 2003, relative to the beginning of the year, but their basket total has outpaced the NASDAQ by only 2.6 percentage points during that 10 month period. The only stocks to drop by more than a percentage point in either period were MSC.Software after announcing the closing of its Systems Business, and EDS after restating earnings.

Dassault and ANSYS stocks rose spectacularly, in the neighborhood of 80% so far this calendar year, compared to 44.5% for NASDAQ. All other stocks rose less than the NASDAQ percentage.

Company Symbol 2-Jan 1-Aug %7 mo 31-Oct %3 mo YTD %
Ansys ANSS 20.25 33.72 66.5% 35.64 5.7% 76.0%
Autodesk ADSK 14.6 15 2.7% 19.31 28.7% 32.3%
Dassault DASTY 22.82 34.41 50.8% 42.10 22.3% 84.5%
EDS EDS 18.99 22.29 17.4% 21.45 -3.8% 13.0%
ESI Group ESIG 10.00 13.20 31.9% 13.87 5.1% 38.7%
MSC.Software MNS 8.18 7.4 -9.5% 10.30 39.2% 25.9%
Moldflow MFLO 7.28 9.8 34.6% 10.00 2.0% 37.4%
PTC PMTC 2.19 3.1 41.6% 3.07 -1.0% 40.2%
Tecnomatix TCNO 8.47 8.98 6.0% 10.11 12.6% 19.4%
Total   112.78 147.90 31.1% 165.86 12.1% 47.1%
Nine Public MCAD Companies' Stock Prices

Stock Exchange Symbol 2-Jan 1-Aug %7 mo 31-Oct %3 mo YTD %
Dow Jones DJIA 8.607 9,154 6.0% 9,801 7.1% 13.9%
NASDAQ Nasdaq 1,337 1,716 22.1% 1,932 12.6% 44.5%
Std & Poors S&P 909 980 7.2% 1,050 7.1% 15.5%
Closing Averages of three exchange indices

Figure 3 - MCAD Vendors Stock Prices and Selected Market Indices

Conclusions from this November 2003 MCAD Commentary

Despite the preliminary report of 7.2% US GDP performance in Q3 2003, there is little in the covered MCAD companies' trailing revenue and earnings performance data, little in their recent total market basket stock price performance, and little in their forecasted financial guidance for the rest of 2003 and beyond, to suggest that a major MCAD Industry turnaround (e.g. widespread double-digit revenue growth) is any closer in November 2003 than it appeared in either August 2003 or in May 2003. Of course, a couple specific vendors will likely outpace their rivals as in the last three quarters.

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