PC Shipments Expected to Shrink Through 2016 as Currency Devaluations and Inventory Constraints Worsens Outlook, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. — (BUSINESS WIRE) — August 26, 2015 — Worldwide PC shipments are expected to fall by -8.7% in 2015 and not stabilize until 2017, according to the International Data Corporation ( IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. The latest forecast has growth declining through 2016 – which will make five years of declining shipments. Growth should resume in 2017, led by the commercial market, while consumer volume continues a small decline through the end of the forecast in 2019.

Although IDC had expected the second quarter of 2015 to be a transition period as vendors prepare for Windows 10 systems in the second half of the year, final results nonetheless shrank even more than expected due to a stubbornly large inventory of notebooks from prior quarters and severe constraints posed by the decline of major currencies relative to the US Dollar.

In addition to economic issues, free upgrades of Windows 10, a relative dearth of newer models in the short term, and channels that are reluctant to take stock also makes the prospect of growth unlikely through 2016. Perhaps as a further sign of a broader pullback, mobile devices can no longer be the sole culprit for PCs demise. Except for smartphones, which are still growing, the combined volume of PCs, tablets, and smartphones is expected to grow only in the single digits from 2015 through 2019 as saturation and "good enough computing" sentiments spread even into tablets, which are expected to see further volume decline in 2015.

Looking beyond the near term, IDC remains optimistic a modest recovery should come in 2017, when the prospect of the next refresh cycle and the cessation of a free Windows 10 upgrade should provide opportunities in notebooks and commercial segments. In emerging regions, where consumer budgets have been divided across a myriad of devices, PC purchases are also expected to regain some interest.

"Although the shortcomings of the PC business are obvious, a silver lining is that the industry has continued to refine the more mobile aspects of personal computers – contributing to higher growth in Convertible & Ultraslim Notebooks," said Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide PC Tracker. "The de-emphasis of touch on Windows 10 also paves the way for a more familiar experience and continuing unit growth on large-screen systems, particularly All-in-One PCs."

 

PC Shipments by Product Category and Region (Shipments in millions)

 

Product
Category

    Region    

2015
Shipments
(M)*

   

Market
Share

   

2019
Shipments
(M)*

   

Market
Share

   

5-Year
CAGR

Portable PC     Mature     87.6     31.1%     90.5     32.1%     0.8%
      Emerging     76.8     27.3%     82.2     29.2%     1.7%
Portable PC Total     164.4     58.4%     172.8     61.3%     1.2%
                                     
Desktop PC Mature 44.6 15.9% 39.3 13.9% -3.1%
      Emerging     72.5     25.8%     70.0     24.8%     -0.9%
Desktop PC Total     117.2     41.6%     109.3     38.7%     -1.7%
                                     
Total PC Mature 132.2 47.0% 129.8 46.0% -0.5%
      Emerging     149.4     53.0%     152.2     54.0%     0.5%
Grand Total           281.6     100.0%     282.1     100.0%     0.0%

1 | 2  Next Page »



Review Article Be the first to review this article
HP

Autodesk - DelCAM

Featured Video
Jobs
Senior Mechanical Engineer for Verb Surgical at Mountain View, CA
CAD Systems Administrator for KLA-Tencor at Milpitas, CA
Principal Research Mechatronics Engineer for Verb Surgical at Mountain View, CA
Industrial Designer Intern – Spring 2017 for Nvidia at Santa Clara, CA
Lead Geospatial Analyst for Alion at McLean, VA
Upcoming Events
PI APPAREL Hong Kong 2017 at SHANGRI-LA KOWLOON 64 Mody Road Tsim Sha Tsui East Kowloon Hong Kong - Apr 5 - 6, 2017
SOLIDWORKS intro and hands on session – Slough at Baylis House, Slough, Berkshire, SL1 3PB Slough United Kingdom - Apr 7, 2017
PMTS 2017 at Greater Columbus Convention Center Exhibit Halls E, F, & D 400 North High St. Columbus OH - Apr 25 - 27, 2017
Engineer 3D! Training + Technology Conference at Hyatt Regency Milwaukee 333 West Kilbourn Avenue Milwaukee WI - Apr 25 - 26, 2017
MasterCAM



Internet Business Systems © 2017 Internet Business Systems, Inc.
595 Millich Dr., Suite 216, Campbell, CA 95008
+1 (408)-337-6870 — Contact Us, or visit our other sites:
AECCafe - Architectural Design and Engineering EDACafe - Electronic Design Automation GISCafe - Geographical Information Services TechJobsCafe - Technical Jobs and Resumes ShareCG - Share Computer Graphic (CG) Animation, 3D Art and 3D Models
  Privacy Policy Advertise